The people of India are suffering from the adverse effect of both inflation and unemployment. As a result poor and middle-class face difficulty in meeting the necessities of life, which further lead to mental stress, high blood pressure, domestic violence, and suicide. The governments at the Centre and state level seem to be least concerned. The government of India has clearly stated that to do business is not its job. That is why everything is being sold out under the garb of disinvestment. The question arises why the government should not be concerned about providing employment opportunities and livelihood to the people to whom they are ruling. Is it not the work of welfare, why the governments have shut their eyes towards people’s problems?
Whenever an unemployment topic comes up in a debate or at any other platform the government spokesperson always tried to camouflage it with other issues may be CAA, NRC, or Pandemic. The claims that unemployment is temporary due to pandemics are turning out to be fake because unemployment increased under the present regime even before the pandemic. Unemployment has already broken the last 45 years’ record by September 2019. It was around 8% at that time but during a pandemic, it increased to 23% but even in May 2021, it was at 14%. Punjab came 5th worst state on unemployment level. Those who have jobs are even facing salary cuts. Most Indians are struggling hard to settle their children abroad, whereas 29000 thousand rich have already taken citizenship of other developed countries.
Let us now first understand who is unemployed and how government reaches unemployment figures. An unemployed is a person who wants to do work but does not find it. In India, an individual who has got work less than one hour in the previous week is considered unemployed, which means that those who got even one hour of work in 7 days his name will be excluded from the unemployed list. The government in order to hide the true picture of unemployment has been molding the definition. The figure of unemployment level at 14% is of those who did not even have one hour work in full one week. How can a person survive for 7 days with one hour wage? As per my understanding, the official economists have deliberately chosen this definition to hide unemployment.
Since 2017-18 we are having jobless growth, pandemic has further worsened the situation, forcing migrants to walk miles together to reach their native places. GDP has gone into negative at -7%, what type of job creation we expect. The Government’s other reform through labor law 2020 as claimed will help in ease of doing business. It will help in bringing foreign companies to India and will help in boosting the Indian economy, which will, in turn, lead to increased employment and hence demand. What happened was exactly the opposite, Indian companies started investing in foreign shores and guaranteeing the minimum employment to be provided by them in that country. Even if on a positive note we expect some companies to invest in India, the type of corporates if at will come, do government and economist expect them to create job opportunity whereas they work on an automation and creates minimum job opportunities. As per new labor laws, the work hours have been increased from 8 to 12. Raising an eyebrow will it lead to increase in jobs, giving straight meaning that where there are three shifts in firm’s it will come to two.
As per the international labor organization (ILO), in the years 2020-21 and 2021-22, 40 crore people will go down in abject poverty. This has been confirmed by the report of all Indian manufactures organization, which is read as 35% MSME firms will close down and 27% startups will shut shops. The astonishing fact is that Centre Government does not have any record that how many industrial units have closed from 2014 to 2020. Neither has it had any data about units closed during and after lockdown as quoted by the central Minister of state. Now in the new circular as per the NEWS 24 channel, the Government of India has frozen all Government jobs from July 2021. Even the posts which were advertised before July 2021, application will be returned, on the other hand, the government has increased the strength of ministers from 46 to 77.
Along with unemployment, the prices of essential goods are also increasing day by day. Do we really expect any surge in demand whereas since last year pandemic Government announced lakhs of crores as relief package, to various sectors? All the relief packages have one thing in common that entrepreneurs are offered additional loans but the people at the tail end neither offered jobs nor subsistence money. Small entrepreneurs are afraid of taking loans, even if they desire the banks do not sanction the same. But those who have links and can afford not to make repayments avail these facilities and later on junked as NPAs which is ultimately loss of depositors and banks are on verge of collapse.
People are being pushed towards additional loans whereas the recovery rate of banks is 7 to 8%. The reason for such low recovery is a large chunk of wilful defaulters. Even on 11th July 2020 during the SBI convention Governor of RBI cautioned banks about increasing NPA and also said that there is no surety that when will demand pick up. The proof that there is a question mark on banks’ liquidation can be taken from this year’s budget where the Government cleared the way for privatization of banks.
Even now corporates are putting pressure on the Government to reduce the corporate tax from 22% to 15%, sighting a reason that tax saved by companies can be reinvested into the country, leading to an increase in jobs. The Government has not acceded to their demands, but their past tracks speaks different story. During lockdown 155 Indian companies invested 165000 crores in America and also guaranteed 125000 jobs over there. Now we need to understand the situation, the person whose business is in some other country, will that fellow has any interest left in India? Will the loan come back? Take the recent example of vaccine manufacturing took a loan from the government of India to enhance vaccine manufacturing capacity but part of the money invested in another country. The money of Indian taxpayers is used to boost other country’s economy and personal benefits.
So putting an end to the whole story I would just like to recommend Government consider the plight of their own people and their own suffering. If Government wants to extend any monetary help to industrial house, should first verify the facts and take written guarantee that how many jobs will be created by the company with that money, similar to the one which Indian industrialist has given to America as an undertaking in writing. The Government should take all necessary steps to protect MSP and Agriculture, the biggest employment generator. The real GDP is generated by this sector which further boosts the trade and service sector.
Dr. Amanpreet Singh Brar
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